November 20, 2018

Ray Dalio: Current Market Cycle, Trade War

Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) talks with Barry Ritholtz about the current market cycle and also about the China - U.S. trade war. Watch the Bloomberg video HERE.


November 16, 2018

My Thoughts on Artificial Intelligence (AI)

In the future, artificial intelligence will have a profound impact on how we make decisions in every aspect of our lives. You can read some of my thoughts on AI, if you’re interested, here:

SYSTEMIZED AND COMPUTERIZED DECISION MAKING

What Work Is

Work is either:

1) a job you do to earn the money to pay for the life you want 
2) what you do to achieve your mission, 
or some mix of the two. 

I urge you to make it as much 2) as possible, recognizing the value of 1). If you do, most everything will go better than if you don’t.

October 11, 2018

What Can A Financial Crisis Lead To?


"It should now be clear to everyone that this is not just a trade war. Where exactly this broader confrontation/war leads is unknown to anyone, including the policy makers who are setting policy." - Ray Dalio

October 2, 2018

Explaining How Debt Crisis Happen




I'm at a stage of my life that I want to pass along the principles that helped me. This was really research that was done before the 2008 financial crisis and it lays out a template of how these things happen over and over again. In other words, I believe that same things happen over and over again and if you study the patterns of them you understand the cause-effect relationships and then can write down principles for dealing with them well.

September 18, 2018

Video: The Next Financial Crisis Will Look Different



Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager, discusses his new book, "A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises," and discusses where we are in the debt cycle and when can we expect another downturn, recession or financial crisis.

The Next Crisis Will Be More Difficult To Handle

I think that the next downturn is going to be a different type of downturn. I think pension problems, healthcare problems in terms of obligations that are not funded. Next time I think it'll be more severe in terms of the social political problems and I think it'll be more difficult to handle.

September 13, 2018

Video: Emerging Markets Crisis



Ray Dalio gives his take on the current crisis in Emerging Markets like Turkey and Argentina and explains his expectations for the next economic downturn.

September 6, 2018

Embrace Reality and Deal With It



The path you take in life is your most important decision. In my case, I wanted my life to be great and I feared boredom and mediocrity more than I feared failure.

Since I didn't start out with money, and I didn't need much more than a bed to sleep in and food to eat, I could skew my decisions to pursue my adventures. So ever since I was a kid, I ran after the things I wanted, crashed, got up and ran again, and crashed again. And each time I crashed I learned something, got better, and crashed less. By doing that over and over again, I learned to love this process, even the crashing part of it. Through it, I encountered reality, and I learned how to deal with it, which inspired another one of my most fundamental principles which is that truth is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes. By truth, I don't mean anything more than the way the world works.


I believe that we were given the laws of reality by nature. Humans didn't create them, but we can use them to foster our own evolution and achieve our goals. Realizing that made me a hyperrealist, by which I mean I became someone who has discovered the great rewards of deeply understanding, accepting, and working with reality as it is and not as I wish it would be. 

When I say I'm a hyperrealist, people sometimes think I'm saying that dreams can't come true. That's absolutely not true. Without pursuing dreams, life is mundane. What I mean is that to me, hyperrealism is the best way to choose one's dreams and then achieve them. Having big dreams plus embracing reality plus having lots of determination will bring you a successful life. 

I believe this formula is true for everyone, but what does a successful life look like? 

We each have to decide for ourselves what success is. I don't care whether you want to be a master of the universe or to live under a palm tree or anything else. I really don't. Each of us chooses goals based on our values and decides on the best path to achieve them, but we all need approaches to making decisions that work well, especially when facing problems, mistakes, and weaknesses that stand in our way. 

To succeed, we must embrace all our realities, especially the harsh realities that we wish weren't true. At first, looking at these harsh realities caused me a lot of pain, but I learned that this pain was just psychological and that by seeing things differently made all the difference. I came to view problems like puzzles that would reward me if I could solve them. They would help me deal with the problem at hand, and they would give me principles for dealing with similar problems in the future. 

I learned to treat pain as a cue that a great learning opportunity is at hand, which led me to realize that pain plus reflection equals progress. Meditation has been invaluable in helping me see things that way. I found that when I calmed myself down and embraced my realities and dealt with them, the rewards brought me pleasure and the pain faded. Each of us has the unique capability to think logically to reflect on ourselves and our circumstances and to direct our own personal evolution. Doing this well is just a matter of following a simple five-step process.