October 26, 2017

Video: Is A Bear Market In Stocks Coming?

Ray Dalio discussed the possibilities for a bear market in U.S. stocks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSEARCA:SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF)(NASDAQ:QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF(NYSEARCA:DIA)

October 25, 2017

Alpha Is a Zero-Sum Game

Alpha is a zero-sum game. I think the for any manager the amount that they have is a function really of almost how much they transact. I think we have the most capacity because we deal in all liquid markets in the world, I mean not only stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, everything that's liquid and we tend to move very slowly in those positions we take.

October 23, 2017

Ray Dalio: The First Stock That I Bought

I caddied in the 1960s when I was 12, I caddied at a golf course and everybody was talking about the stock market then. The stock market had gone up for a long, long time and whenever you got a haircut or anything you would always be talking about stocks. So I took my caddying money when I earned six dollars a bag and so I would get twelve dollars a round and I took my caddying money and I put it in the stock market. 

I was curious and I remember the first stock that I bought was a company by the name of Northeast Airlines. The only reason I bought it was because it was selling for less than five dollars a share and I figured I could buy more shares so I'd make more money if it went up. That was dumb but I it was a company that was about to go bankrupt and then somebody acquired it. It tripled and I was hooked so I got hooked on the markets at that time.

October 19, 2017

3 Recommended Books

In a recent podcast Tim Ferriss asked Dalio which books he would recommend to any new college graduate, and Dalio responded with three titles he thinks everyone should read: 

"The Lessons of History" by Will and Ariel Durant

"River Out of Eden" by Richard Dawkins

"The Hero with a Thousand Faces" by Joseph Campbell

October 17, 2017

Meaningful Work and Meaningful Relationships

One sentence that I try to describe Bridgewater by it's "meaningful work and meaningful relationships". 

What I want is meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency. So, meaningful work means we're in a mission together, we're excited about we do and we want to do it excellently. That's meaningful work.

Meaningful relationships are these relationships in where there's honesty, where you can argue things through but you always know that there's honesty and that there's mutual caring for each other.

Radical truth means that knowing what is true to be able to deal with reality whether you like the reality or not but to know what reality is.

October 16, 2017

How The Economic Machine Works

The economy works like a simple machine. But many people don't understand it — or they don't agree on how it works — and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering. I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template. Though it's unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and sidestep the global financial crisis, and has worked well for me for over 30 years.

October 2, 2017

The Holy Grail of Investing

In a recent podcast, Ray Dalio explained what is in his opinion the Holy Grail of Investing: 

"The Holy Grail of investing, the thing I have learned and it’s the most important is that if I can have 10 or 15, ideally 15 but even if it’s 5 good uncorrelated bets, that`s the Holy Grail. So, the Holy Grail is 15 good uncorrelated bets. (...) Knowing the value of uncorrelated bets is incredibly important. "

Confirmation Bias

I think most people start with an opinion and filter information it comes to them to be consistent with their opinion.