January 24, 2019
Steenbarger: Two Self-Destructive Behaviors
Dr. Brett Steenbarger highlights two self-destructive behaviors that many traders tend to engage in:
(1) Trading addiction
(2) Impulsivity (aka Overtrading)
"Two self-destructive behaviors come to mind immediately the first I would call trading addiction people can be addicted to trading just like they can be addicted to gambling and for much of the same reason not everyone trades to make money some people are trading for thrills and excitement and those people do get in their own way."
"The other self-destructive behavior I would call impulsivity. When people make impulsive decisions because of frustration. They lose some money, the markets are not moving very much and they become frustrated and out of that frustration they feel a need to trade. In fact, traders call it overtrading. They make those impulsive decisions where they don't really have an edge in the trade and they end up 01:38 losing money as a result."
You can find Dr. Steenbarger's books on Amazon.com:
Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes (2015)
The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (2009)
The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets (2002)
January 22, 2019
Charlie Munger: The Merits Of Long-Term Investing
Short Bio: Charlie Munger is a 95 years old investor and the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
Video duration: 23m51s
Charlie Munger on the merits of long-term investing:
"If you invest the way people gamble in
casinos you're not gonna do very well. So ,it's the long-term investment that works
best. But if you like the action of
investing and sometimes winning, sometimes losing, just like people like
the action when they gamble in a casino, those people are not my people. I like the long-term investors who
figure out something that's going to
work over the long term and buy that."
Charlie Munger highlights a paradox in Chinese behavior when it comes to investing in the markets and the desire to gamble:
"The Chinese do have a long attention
span and that is a hugely desirable
quality because you you're more likely
to get the right answer if you think
deeply and hard about a subject for a
long time and it's odd there's a group
of people who are so good at having a
long attention span like to gamble so
much which is quite counterproductive."
Interestingly, Munger considers the short-term market players as "gamblers":
"We have a view as to what
the intrinsic value is of what is being
traded and we only buy it when we think
it's worth more than we're paying so
we're trying to make a long-term
investment by waiting for something to
be under priced and then buying it
and we don't give a damn about all these
gamblers in the market."
January 18, 2019
Jim Simmons: The Mathematician Who Cracked The Markets
Jim Simmons is a mathematician and a hedge fund manager (founded Renaissance Technologies in 1982). He is considered by many to have the best investment track record in the whole industry.
In this interview Jim explained how he got started in trading in his late thirties when he got tired of mathematics (who can blame him?):
"When I started
doing trading, I had gotten a little
tired of mathematics. I was in my late
30s I had a little money I started
trading and it went very well
I made quite a lot of money how it with
pure luck I mean I think it was pure
luck. simply wasn't mathematical modeling."
And how starting that venture ended up in forming one of the world's biggest hedge funds:
"But in looking at the data after a while
I realized hey this looks like there's
some structure here and I hired a few
mathematicians and we started trying to
make some models just the kind of thing
we did back at eye-dea
you design an algorithm you test it out
on a computer does it work doesn't it
work
and so on.
"
Simmons also stated how commodities and currencies used to show trending characteristics back in the day but that is. not the case any longer:
"(in) the old days commodities or
currencies had a tendency to trend."
"The
trend-following would have been great in
the 60s and it was sort of okay in the
70s by the 80s it wasn't such."
Jim stressed the importance of staying ahead of the competition by looking for shorter term approaches to trading and hiring very smart individuals:
"We stayed ahead of the
pack by finding by finding other other
approaches and shorter term approaches
to some extent. But the the real thing
was to gather a tremendous amount of
data and and we had to get it by hand in
the early days. We went down to the
Federal Reserve and copied interest rate
histories and stuff like that because it
didn't exist on computers. We got a lot
of data, very smart people and that
was the that was the key."
"In a certain sense what we
did was machine learning you you you
look at a lot of data and you try to
simulate different predictive schemes
until you get better and better at it it
doesn't doesn't necessarily feed back on
itself the way we did things but it
worked."
Mark D. Cook: Having A Business Plan For Trading
Mark D. Cook was one of the few day traders interviewed by Jack Schwager on his Market Wizards books (Stock Market Wizards, Mark D. Cook: Harvesting S&P Profits). In this presentation Mark stresses out the importance of treating trading as a business.
"In my own experience as I
started with the business training plan
in 1991 and I have been doing it every
year since. It added to my bottom line
because I had scenarios covered of what
to do, when to do it and how to go about
it before as I said before the emotions
came on to it."
A few of the best quotes from his interview on the Stock market Wizards book are:
"The best trades work the quickest."
"If you decide to trade for a living, you have to treat it just like any other business endeavor and go into it with a plan."
"You need to have a solid business plan. The trouble is that most people start trading without any definitive plan."
Jack Schwager: Have The Markets Changed Over The Years?
Jack Schwager has written four excellent book on his Market Wizards series (Market Wizards, The New Market Wizards, Stock Market Wizards and Hedge Fund Market Wizards). When asked on how these new traders differ from the ones interviewed in the first book he answered:
"Every person is a
different personality, different story, different lessons and different way of
trading. Even within this book (Hedge Fund Market Wizards) everybody
I interviewed is completely different
on how they make money in the markets. (That's) amazing, I mean, I couldn't even make up
as many various ways of trading markets
as these people are using."
On the price action itself, Jack stresses that markets have changed a lot over the years but the main trading principles do not really change over time:
"Markets are
always changing and but certain
principles but the main principles don't
change."
While trend following worked very well in the eighties and nineties, in the modern markets they do not work well. One of the reasons for that is the proliferation of computerized trading systems and models:
"I think one
big change is the the big trend
following profits that were easy to take
in those earlier years no longer are
then you can still get big trends but
markets sent a much more false breakouts
you tend to have lots of choppier
conditions it's more difficult to make
money doing that type of approach you
can still do it but has to be a bit more
sophisticated."
January 16, 2019
The Story Of Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore is considered by many has the best speculator that has ever lived. His book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was the most recommended book among the market wizards interviewed by Jack Schwager in his books.
Inside Reminiscences of a Stock Operator you will find some of the most brilliant quotes about the stock market, trading and investing. Here's a few:
“I have long since learned, as all should learn, not to make excuses when wrong. Just admit it and try to profit by it. We all know when we are wrong. The market will tell the speculator when he is wrong, because he is losing money.”
“Let me warn you that the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions.”
“The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.”
"Rome was not built in a day," and no real movement of importance ends in one day or in one week. It takes time for it to run its logical course.
"Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit."
"A speculator should make it a rule each time he closes out a successful deal to take one-half of his profits and lock this sum up in a safe deposit box."
"Definitely is not safe to try to keep account of too many stocks at one time. You will become entangled and confused."
“A speculator without cash is like a store owner with no inventory. Cash is your inventory, your lifeline, your best friend. Without cash you’re out of business.”
“The market will tell the speculator when he is wrong, because he is losing money.”
Peter Brandt: Mental Game Of Trading
Peter Brandt is a professional trader and he has been trading futures and forex for 42 years.
Video duration: 7m11s
Peter Brandt starts with a few pertinent questions to describe what trading is really all about.
"Have you ever had five straight
losing trades, ten straight losing trades?"
"Have you ever been in a situation where
you wonder whether you're ever gonna win
again?"
Peter Brandt considers that there are two dangerous periods in the life of the trader:
"The
two most dangerous periods that can
enter into the life of the trader and
how they affect you in slightly
different ways but important ways and
the two things are severe draw downs and
the second thing is a severely
profitable period of time because they
also can be very dangerous."
In this video Peter shares his worst drawdown experience:
"My year worst year as a trader was
2013 in which I lost 13 percent but that
was part of a drawdown that lasted 15
months. For 15 months I was in the
drawdown and it was agony."
Peter Brandt has written a great book. You can find it on Amazon:
Ray Dalio: Building A Company Where The Best Ideas Win
Short Bio: Ray Dalio is an hedge fund manager, writer and philanthropist. Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates, currently one of the world's biggest hedge funds. His estimated net worth is around 18 billion dollars.
Video duration: 16m33s
In this video presentation at Ted Talks, Ray Dalio explained how he got started in trading the markets and how investors must act in order to become successful. Here are some of the highlights:
"When I was 12 years old
I hated school but I fell in love with
trading the markets."
"In order to be an
effective investor one has to bet
against the consensus and be right and
it's not easy to bet against the
census and be right when has the bet
against the consensus and be right
because the consensus is built into the
price."
"I made a
lot of painful mistakes and with time my
attitude about those mistakes began to
change I began to think of them as
puzzles that if I could solve the
puzzles they would give me gems and the
puzzles were what would I do differently
in the future so I wouldn't make that
painful mistake and the gems were
principles that I would then write down
so I would remember them that would help
me in the future."
You can find Ray Dalio's books on Amazon:
Big Debt Crises (2018)
Brett Steenbarger: The Importance Of Deliberate Practice In Trading
Video duration: 3m19s
Record date: August, 2018
Dr. Brett Steenbarger considers trading as a performance activity similar to sports or chess:
"What traders need to
focus on is that trading is a
performance activity no different from
sports no different from chess acting
and so in any performance activity it
requires practice it requires feedback
about how we're doing efforts at getting
better and better
and so we see successful traders going
through a certain kind of learning curve
where they're constantly learning from
their experience changing what they do
improving what they do redoing
relearning always evolving."
Brett also stresses the importance for traders to work in teams:
You can find Dr. Steenbarger's books on Amazon.com:
Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes (2015)
The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (2009)
The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets (2002)
January 15, 2019
Jack Schwager: Losing Is Part Of The Game
Video duration: 2m48s
Highlights:
"One of the keys who
to being a successful trader is to
understand that losing is part of the
game."
"It's all about finding what
works for you and it's not the same as
for somebody else."
"The most
important thing is risk management they
all will tell you that more important in
methodology."
"Marty Schwartz spent like 10 years he says losing money and then he became a winner I asked what what changed he said I became a winner when I understood it was okay to lose."
The role of "Luck" in trading:
When asked if luck has anything to do with trading success, Jack Schwager answered that over the long run luck has nothing to do with successful trading in the markets:
"Marty Schwartz spent like 10 years he says losing money and then he became a winner I asked what what changed he said I became a winner when I understood it was okay to lose."
The role of "Luck" in trading:
When asked if luck has anything to do with trading success, Jack Schwager answered that over the long run luck has nothing to do with successful trading in the markets:
"In the short run you're
better off being lucky than smart, that's the old cliche. It's true. But for the long run only the traders that really know what they're
doing will survive. So, in fact
what luck is one of the things that
fools people because in trading even
the amateur can be right
because you can only buy or sell so some
people think they're smart just because
they get into the bull market and
they're on the right side. But over the
long term,luck has nothing to do with it, just for
the short term."
Here are some of Schwager's books available for sale on Amazon:
January 14, 2019
Linda Raschke: Pre-Market Routines
Linda Raschke shares her trading routines.
The importance of doing the homework the night before:
"First of all I
always try to have my homework done the
night before(...) and then of course first thing I'll do
when I get up is usually check the
markets just to see where they're
trading so I can get a baseline reading (...)"
Most trading opportunities are in the morning:
"The opportunity comes in the morning sessions and you know I usually start at 6 a.m. CT so at 7 a.m. CT there is a big pickup in activity in the market so if I'm watching it a little bit beforehand it helps get a feel (...)"
The importance of avoiding or minimizing distractions:
"Trading is a performance oriented discipline so the more you can eliminate distractions and get yourself into a ritual or groove right away I think you're better able to concentrate and that's really the key is being able to concentrate right off the bat."
The little details that matter:
"For me, it's always important that I eat a big breakfast. I always have a giant bowl of oatmeal or a couple eggs and you know that really only takes 5 minutes but you got to feel the body and got to feel the brain. That's so important! People sit there and think they're going to make it on a bagel or something... It just doesn't work that way so it's really important to have some good nutrition."
The importance of trading from a quiet, calm space:
"Try and have a space where you're not going to be distracted or kids knocking on the door, phone's ringing or that type of stuff."
January 11, 2019
Steenbarger: 3 Common Trading Problems
Dr. Brett Steenbarger identifies three important common trading problems:
(1) performance anxiety
(2) impulsivity: impulsivity occurs when we act before we think
(3) failure to adapt to changing market conditions
Video duration: 9 minutes
Record date: July, 2009
You can find Dr. Steenbarger's books on Amazon.com:
Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes (2015)
The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (2009)
The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets (2002)
January 10, 2019
John F. Carter: 5 Favorite Option Trades
Bio: John F. Carter is the founder and the CEO of Simpler Trading and the author of the best-selling book Mastering The Trade.
Video duration: 48 minutes
Record date: October, 2018
Summary:
John F. Carter describes his 5 favorite basic strategies:
- Directional swings lasting a few weeks
- Directional swings lasting a few days
- Directional day trades lasting a few hours
- Selling credit spreads on weekly options
- Implied volatility crush on bad news
Mastering the Trade, Third Edition: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups 3rd Edition
January 9, 2019
Jack Schwager: Polar Extreme Approaches To Trading
Video Duration: 6 minutes
Record date: May, 2015
Video Highlights:
On one hand you have Jim Rogers who's the world's biggest cynic about technical trading. He's very long-term, fundamental ideas and done successfully all his life. His comment about technical analysis is, "I never met a rich technician unless you count the ones that sell their services". That's a summary of his opinion about technical analysis and he's been extremely successful.
Record date: May, 2015
Video Highlights:
On one hand you have Jim Rogers who's the world's biggest cynic about technical trading. He's very long-term, fundamental ideas and done successfully all his life. His comment about technical analysis is, "I never met a rich technician unless you count the ones that sell their services". That's a summary of his opinion about technical analysis and he's been extremely successful.
But you got people like Marty
Schwartz who started out as
a stocks trader and told me he lost money
every year trading about fundamentals
and then found technical analysis and
got wealthy as a technician.
So you
can take people who have not only different approaches but have
approaches that are polar extremes and
consider each other's approaches
complete nonsense and yet they're both
extremely successful.
Here are some of Schwager's books available for sale on Amazon: Market Wizards, Updated: Interviews with Top Traders (2012)
The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders (1994)
A Complete Guide to the Futures Market: Technical Analysis, Trading Systems, Fundamental Analysis, Options, Spreads, and Trading Principles (2017)
Van Tharp: Position Sizing Strategies
Dr. Van Tharp on the importance of position sizing:
"It's a little-known topic but it's probably aside from your own psychology the most important topic you could ever learn. How much? Position Sizing strategies tell you how much you should have on throughout the course of a trade and what people don't realize that it's through position sizing, not your system but through position sizing that you meet your (trading) objectives."
Mark Minervini: I'm a Big Reader
I came from a modest beginning to say the least so I had to read a
lot of books and get a lot of books and
tapes early on in the day to get me
motivated and to learn how to get a
successful mindset.
So, I have I often
point out that I have all my books
behind me in my office. Over a thousand
books on motivation, success and finance and so I'm a big
reader. I wanted also in
my book to be able to motivate people because if you're not motivated, you
don't believe you can do something.
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